Betting Lines
| Spread | WAG -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Over |
| Money | WAG -167 BU +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BU +14 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | WAG -2.5 (-16.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 119.9 (+12.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAG -2.7 (-16.7) | 129.5 (+2.5) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WAG -2.9 (-16.9) | 127.5 (+4.5) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAG -2.0 (-16.0) | 126.7 (+5.3) | 56% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAG -0.3 (-14.3) | 128.1 (+3.9) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 20, 2024 | WAG 60 – 58 BU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAG | BU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 10-8 |
| Home | 7-5 | 9-7 |
| Away | 9-10 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.0 | 65.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.1 | 67.2 |
| Massey | -6.9 (#294) | -4.2 (#251) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.37 (#209) | -1.01 (#268) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.98 (#240) | -0.97 (#238) |
| RPI | 0.484 (#195) | 0.432 (#276) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAG | BU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 34.6% | 38.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 40.9% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 15.9% | 18.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 78.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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