Betting Lines
| Spread | BU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 119.5 Under |
| Money | BU -220 WAG +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAG +2 | 118 | Lost |
| Massey | BU -10.4 (-12.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 110.3 (+7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BU -5.9 (-7.9) | 120.2 (-2.2) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BU -5.7 (-7.7) | 125.4 (-7.4) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BU -5.1 (-7.1) | 121.2 (-3.2) | 64% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BU -5.5 (-7.5) | 120.5 (-2.5) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 10, 2023 | BU 73 – 59 WAG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BU | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 6-10 |
| Home | 12-4 | 8-6 |
| Away | 3-12 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 57.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 63.0 |
| Massey | -5.0 (#269) | -8.5 (#318) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.20 (#331) | -1.45 (#287) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.99 (#319) | -1.87 (#276) |
| RPI | 0.366 (#311) | 0.481 (#206) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BU | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 29.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 22.4% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 33.8% |
| TOV% | 22.5% | 22.1% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 14.3% | 8.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 56.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 78.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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