All my failings exposed, gets a taste in my mouth as desperation takes hold "Love Will Tear Us Apart" - Joy Division
Addition Financial Arena · December 10, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread UCF -3.5 Away covered
O/U 138.5 Under
Money UCF -163 / MISS +125
Model Predictions
Spread Total UCF win
Actual MISS +2 138 Lost
Massey UCF -10.9 (-12.9) — —
Massey Totals — 139.1 (-1.1) —
Bradley-Terry — — 22% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 12% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ UCF -8.6 (-10.6) 141.3 (-3.3) 78% ✗
Baseline Tuned ML UCF -8.6 (-10.6) 140.5 (-2.5) 74% ✗
Baseline ML UCF -8.2 (-10.2) 141.7 (-3.7) 77% ✗
Baseline Plus ML UCF -8.2 (-10.2) 143.5 (-5.5) 77% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 15, 2022 UCF 72 – 61 MISS

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UCF MISS
Overall 17-16 20-12
Conference 7-11 7-11
Home 11-8 14-4
Away 3-7 4-7
Neutral 3-1 2-1
Last 5 4-1 5-0
Streak L2 L3
Avg Pts For 71.7 74.9
Avg Pts Against 67.9 73.9
Massey 7.7 (#58) 1.9 (#138)
Bradley-Terry 1.02 (#99) 3.42 (#9)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.30 (#103) 4.64 (#15)
RPI 0.575 (#72) 0.633 (#25)
Shooting & Four Factors UCF MISS
FG% 44.2% 44.6%
3PT% 33.5% 36.2%
REB / G 40.8 36.8
OREB / G 12.9 10.5
AST / TO 0.95 1.57
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.4% 50.4%
TOV% 17.2% 15.2%
ORB% 33.1% 30.2%
FT Rate 22.8% 23.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 45.8% 45.0%
Opp TOV% 22.7% 18.1%
DRB% 76.1% 66.7%
Opp FT Rate 30.9% 16.9%

Game Analysis

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