Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | UCF -163 MISS +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MISS +2 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | UCF -10.9 (-12.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.1 (-1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -8.6 (-10.6) | 141.3 (-3.3) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -8.6 (-10.6) | 140.5 (-2.5) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -8.2 (-10.2) | 141.7 (-3.7) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -8.2 (-10.2) | 143.5 (-5.5) | 77% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 15, 2022 | UCF 72 – 61 MISS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-8 | 14-4 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 73.9 |
| Massey | 7.7 (#58) | 1.9 (#138) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.02 (#99) | 3.42 (#9) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.30 (#103) | 4.64 (#15) |
| RPI | 0.575 (#72) | 0.633 (#25) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 40.8 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 45.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.7% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 76.1% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.9% | 16.9% |
Game Analysis
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