Betting Lines
| Spread | MISS -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | MISS -200 UCF +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MISS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +11 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | MISS -6.7 (-17.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.3 (+7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MISS -4.9 (-15.9) | 132.1 (+0.9) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MISS -6.7 (-17.7) | 132.1 (+0.9) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MISS -6.7 (-17.7) | 133.4 (-0.4) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MISS -6.9 (-17.9) | 131.9 (+1.1) | 75% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 10, 2023 | MISS 70 – 68 UCF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MISS | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 8-10 |
| Home | 7-10 | 11-6 |
| Away | 2-9 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 65.5 |
| Massey | 8.3 (#62) | 6.9 (#68) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.68 (#58) | 1.10 (#94) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.55 (#47) | 1.92 (#75) |
| RPI | 0.599 (#43) | 0.558 (#84) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MISS | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 22.0% |
| ORB% | 38.8% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 42.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 22.7% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.2% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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