And then my good friend Shaggy says "Come spend some time, family" "44/876" -- Shaggy & Sting
The Sandy and John Black Pavilion at Ole Miss · December 15, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread MISS -6.5 Away covered
O/U 129.5 Over
Money MISS -200 / UCF +200
Model Predictions
Spread Total MISS win
Actual UCF +11 133 Lost
Massey MISS -6.7 (-17.7) — —
Massey Totals — 125.3 (+7.7) —
Bradley-Terry — — 83% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 86% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ MISS -4.9 (-15.9) 132.1 (+0.9) 67% ✗
Baseline Tuned ML MISS -6.7 (-17.7) 132.1 (+0.9) 71% ✗
Baseline ML MISS -6.7 (-17.7) 133.4 (-0.4) 72% ✗
Baseline Plus ML MISS -6.9 (-17.9) 131.9 (+1.1) 75% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 10, 2023 MISS 70 – 68 UCF

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MISS UCF
Overall 12-21 19-15
Conference 3-15 8-10
Home 7-10 11-6
Away 2-9 5-7
Neutral 3-2 3-2
Last 5 3-2 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 67.5 71.5
Avg Pts Against 69.1 65.5
Massey 8.3 (#62) 6.9 (#68)
Bradley-Terry 1.68 (#58) 1.10 (#94)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.55 (#47) 1.92 (#75)
RPI 0.599 (#43) 0.558 (#84)
Shooting & Four Factors MISS UCF
FG% 45.9% 43.6%
3PT% 33.1% 36.7%
REB / G 37.9 38.1
OREB / G 13.2 12.1
AST / TO 1.04 0.82
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.9% 50.9%
TOV% 19.5% 22.0%
ORB% 38.8% 35.0%
FT Rate 20.0% 20.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 46.4% 42.9%
Opp TOV% 21.6% 22.7%
DRB% 69.4% 69.6%
Opp FT Rate 17.2% 20.1%

Game Analysis

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