Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | JOES -125 PRIN +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +4 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | PRIN -1.3 (+5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.3 (+7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PRIN -0.8 (+4.8) | 136.1 (+7.9) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -1.9 (+2.1) | 139.2 (+4.8) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -0.7 (+3.3) | 139.3 (+4.7) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -0.9 (+3.1) | 137.5 (+6.5) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 30, 2025 | JOES 60 – 58 PRIN |
| Dec 4, 2024 | PRIN 77 – 69 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | PRIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 24-5 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 12-2 |
| Home | 14-3 | 12-1 |
| Away | 3-10 | 11-3 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 68.1 |
| Massey | 5.6 (#84) | 12.2 (#29) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.96 (#102) | 4.53 (#2) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.22 (#60) | 6.08 (#2) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#159) | 0.664 (#8) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | PRIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 1.54 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 16.5% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.7% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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