Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | PRIN +190 JOES -230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PRIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +2 | 118 | Lost |
| Massey | PRIN -3.0 (-5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.2 (-27.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PRIN -1.5 (-3.5) | 147.9 (-29.9) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PRIN -2.4 (-4.4) | 142.5 (-24.5) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PRIN -1.8 (-3.8) | 144.9 (-26.9) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PRIN -1.8 (-3.8) | 149.1 (-31.1) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 4, 2024 | PRIN 77 – 69 JOES |
| Dec 10, 2023 | JOES 74 – 70 PRIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PRIN | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-20 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 5-9 | 13-5 |
| Home | 8-4 | 13-3 |
| Away | 1-12 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -5.5 (#255) | -8.6 (#309) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.04 (#264) | -1.10 (#271) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.94 (#229) | -1.53 (#263) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#277) | 0.433 (#284) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PRIN | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 26.9% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 13.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 24.7% | 33.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.9% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 76.5% | 62.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.5% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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