Betting Lines
| Spread | WICH -5.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | WICH -195 SDST +162 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +10 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | WICH -4.9 (-14.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.4 (+1.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WICH -3.7 (-13.7) | 143.4 (+4.6) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WICH -3.3 (-13.3) | 143.0 (+5.0) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WICH -3.0 (-13.0) | 143.9 (+4.1) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WICH -3.1 (-13.1) | 144.5 (+3.5) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WICH | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-19 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 12-4 |
| Home | 10-5 | 11-3 |
| Away | 2-9 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 3-5 | 5-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 72.0 |
| Massey | 5.1 (#93) | 0.2 (#165) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.16 (#92) | -0.59 (#235) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.49 (#92) | -0.49 (#202) |
| RPI | 0.585 (#60) | 0.512 (#161) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WICH | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 29.8% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 44.2 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 17.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.3% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.2% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.5% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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