Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | MIA -125 COLO +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLO +27 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | MIA -0.9 (-27.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.7 (-5.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -0.1 (-27.1) | 151.1 (+1.9) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -1.2 (-28.2) | 150.6 (+2.4) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -1.0 (-28.0) | 151.7 (+1.3) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -1.5 (-28.5) | 151.9 (+1.1) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | COLO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 26-11 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 13-7 |
| Home | 11-6 | 16-1 |
| Away | 2-9 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L10 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 79.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 71.7 |
| Massey | 10.9 (#40) | 9.9 (#43) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.28 (#34) | 0.20 (#166) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.83 (#40) | 0.11 (#173) |
| RPI | 0.638 (#21) | 0.518 (#149) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | COLO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.3% | 51.6% |
| 3PT% | 42.5% | 41.8% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.4% | 57.8% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 35.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 31.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 75.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.7% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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