Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | LR -111 WIN -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +17 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | LR -3.5 (-20.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.6 (-12.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LR -2.5 (-19.5) | 156.8 (-3.8) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LR -3.0 (-20.0) | 157.4 (-4.4) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LR -2.8 (-19.8) | 156.0 (-3.0) | 59% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LR -1.3 (-18.3) | 155.0 (-2.0) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 9, 2024 | WIN 82 – 67 LR |
| Dec 3, 2020 | WIN 80 – 75 LR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LR | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 8-8 |
| Home | 14-4 | 9-5 |
| Away | 6-6 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 73.5 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#209) | -0.1 (#170) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.04 (#271) | 0.08 (#172) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.28 (#266) | -0.06 (#182) |
| RPI | 0.429 (#281) | 0.513 (#157) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LR | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 35.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 64.9% | 66.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.5% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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