Betting Lines
| Spread | LR -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | LR -125 WIN +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +5 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | WIN -2.1 (-2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.8 (+16.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -1.6 (-3.4) | 140.0 (+15.0) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -0.1 (-4.9) | 143.7 (+11.3) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -1.5 (-3.5) | 139.5 (+15.5) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 9, 2024 | WIN 82 – 67 LR |
| Dec 10, 2023 | WIN 85 – 68 LR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LR | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 1-0 |
| Massey | 0.6 (#122) | 2.7 (#86) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#90) | 1.65 (#33) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.66 (#97) | 2.58 (#27) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#82) | 0.625 (#47) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LR | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.7% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 40.0% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.61 | 0.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 27.8% | 22.6% |
| ORB% | 36.7% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 36.4% | 46.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 39.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 27.1% | 24.8% |
| DRB% | 61.2% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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