Twenty-one years in captivity / His shoes too small to fit his feet "Nelson Mandela" - The Specials
Truist Arena · December 10, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread AKR -3.5 Home covered
O/U 137.5 Over
Money NKU +150 / AKR -150
Model Predictions
Spread Total NKU win
Actual AKR +1 153 Lost
Massey NKU -0.9 (-1.9)
Massey Totals 132.2 (+20.8)
Bradley-Terry 50%
Weighted B-T 43%
Baseline Plus ML NKU -2.5 (-3.5) 131.0 (+22.0) 54%
Baseline ML NKU -3.0 (-4.0) 133.7 (+19.3) 62%
Baseline Tuned ML NKU -3.3 (-4.3) 133.4 (+19.6) 61%
Efficiency Plus ML NKU -0.6 (-1.6) 131.4 (+21.6) 50%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 4, 2024 AKR 8673 NKU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings NKU AKR
Overall 18-15 24-11
Conference 12-8 13-5
Home 12-3 13-1
Away 6-11 7-6
Neutral 0-1 4-4
Last 5 4-1 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 73.9 72.0
Avg Pts Against 73.8 67.1
Massey -0.7 (#183) 3.6 (#113)
Bradley-Terry -0.41 (#215) 0.70 (#124)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.62 (#213) 0.97 (#115)
RPI 0.458 (#244) 0.558 (#90)
Shooting & Four Factors NKU AKR
FG% 46.0% 44.5%
3PT% 28.7% 33.7%
REB / G 31.8 33.6
OREB / G 9.4 9.4
AST / TO 1.18 0.91
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.5% 52.0%
TOV% 17.8% 21.5%
ORB% 27.8% 30.4%
FT Rate 24.8% 24.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.3% 52.2%
Opp TOV% 22.3% 18.8%
DRB% 68.3% 77.2%
Opp FT Rate 20.9% 15.6%

Game Analysis

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