Betting Lines
| Spread | AKR -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | NKU +150 AKR -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AKR +1 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | NKU -0.9 (-1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.2 (+20.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NKU -2.5 (-3.5) | 131.0 (+22.0) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NKU -3.0 (-4.0) | 133.7 (+19.3) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NKU -3.3 (-4.3) | 133.4 (+19.6) | 61% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NKU -0.6 (-1.6) | 131.4 (+21.6) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 4, 2024 | AKR 86 – 73 NKU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NKU | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 13-5 |
| Home | 12-3 | 13-1 |
| Away | 6-11 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.8 | 67.1 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#183) | 3.6 (#113) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.41 (#215) | 0.70 (#124) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.62 (#213) | 0.97 (#115) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#244) | 0.558 (#90) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NKU | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 28.7% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 77.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 15.6% |
Game Analysis
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