Betting Lines
| Spread | AKR -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | AKR -300 NKU +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AKR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AKR +13 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | AKR -9.5 (+3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.5 (+8.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AKR -7.4 (+5.6) | 147.6 (+11.4) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AKR -7.8 (+5.2) | 146.7 (+12.3) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AKR -7.2 (+5.8) | 146.6 (+12.4) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AKR -9.3 (+3.7) | 148.6 (+10.4) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 10, 2023 | AKR 77 – 76 NKU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AKR | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 11-9 |
| Home | 16-0 | 12-6 |
| Away | 8-4 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.4 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.4 | 72.2 |
| Massey | 0.4 (#154) | -3.8 (#231) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.13 (#185) | -2.72 (#345) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.31 (#188) | -3.22 (#330) |
| RPI | 0.481 (#206) | 0.447 (#263) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AKR | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 40.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 25.7% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 15.6 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.83 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 45.2% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 35.5% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 16.9% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 65.9% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 17.2% |
Game Analysis
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