Betting Lines
| Spread | PEPP -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | PEPP -190 UCSD +158 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PEPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PEPP +6 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | PEPP -4.4 (+1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.0 (-13.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PEPP -3.0 (+3.0) | 141.6 (-11.6) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PEPP -3.0 (+3.0) | 140.7 (-10.7) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PEPP -2.9 (+3.1) | 139.7 (-9.7) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PEPP -4.5 (+1.5) | 139.5 (-9.5) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 10, 2024 | UCSD 94 – 76 PEPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PEPP | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 15-5 |
| Home | 9-8 | 14-2 |
| Away | 3-8 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 69.9 |
| Massey | -1.9 (#213) | -1.1 (#188) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.14 (#325) | -0.75 (#247) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.69 (#318) | -0.67 (#217) |
| RPI | 0.395 (#319) | 0.462 (#238) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PEPP | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 77.0% | 63.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.1% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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