Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSD -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | UCSD -400 PEPP +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSD +18 | 170 | Won |
| Massey | UCSD -13.1 (+4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.4 (+28.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSD -5.0 (+13.0) | 136.2 (+33.8) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSD -5.3 (+12.7) | 139.0 (+31.0) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 10, 2023 | PEPP 68 – 62 UCSD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSD | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-5 | 13-22 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 4-14 |
| Home | 13-2 | 7-9 |
| Away | 12-2 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.5 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.0 | 77.2 |
| Massey | 2.5 (#118) | 1.9 (#127) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.48 (#234) | 1.05 (#57) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.57 (#209) | 1.61 (#47) |
| RPI | — | 0.750 (#19) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSD | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 32.8% | 53.8% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 46.7% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.0% | 60.6% |
| TOV% | 12.1% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 21.4% | 24.0% |
| FT Rate | 13.1% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 45.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 13.2% |
| DRB% | 82.1% | 80.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 14.8% |
Game Analysis
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