Betting Lines
| Spread | LIP -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | LIP -213 TNST +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LIP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIP +7 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | LIP -10.4 (-3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.0 (-3.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIP -9.5 (-2.5) | 148.7 (+0.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIP -8.0 (-1.0) | 147.7 (+1.3) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LIP -8.4 (-1.4) | 147.6 (+1.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIP -8.1 (-1.1) | 147.2 (+1.8) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 11, 2022 | TNST 90 – 85 LIP |
| Dec 12, 2021 | TNST 73 – 65 LIP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LIP | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-2 | 11-3 |
| Away | 6-8 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.4 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.3 | 72.2 |
| Massey | 2.0 (#135) | -3.2 (#232) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#135) | -0.59 (#233) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.49 (#154) | 0.24 (#166) |
| RPI | 0.526 (#138) | 0.407 (#306) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LIP | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 23.1% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 28.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 22.9% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 66.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.4% | 29.5% |
Game Analysis
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