Betting Lines
| Spread | LIP -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | TNST +130 LIP -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNST +5 | 175 | Won |
| Massey | TNST -1.3 (+3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.4 (+38.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNST -0.9 (+4.1) | 138.1 (+36.9) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNST -2.1 (+2.9) | 137.4 (+37.6) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TNST -1.6 (+3.4) | 136.9 (+38.1) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNST -1.6 (+3.4) | 139.4 (+35.6) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 10, 2023 | LIP 78 – 71 TNST |
| Dec 12, 2021 | TNST 73 – 65 LIP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNST | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 11-7 |
| Home | 13-4 | 13-2 |
| Away | 4-8 | 7-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 72.6 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#249) | -0.3 (#186) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.92 (#264) | 0.16 (#163) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.30 (#261) | 0.00 (#177) |
| RPI | 0.411 (#307) | 0.510 (#153) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNST | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 24.0% | 22.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 16.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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