Betting Lines
| Spread | VCU -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | VCU -2500 ALCN +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VCU +28 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | VCU -17.5 (+10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.2 (-3.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VCU -16.5 (+11.5) | 144.5 (-0.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VCU -14.4 (+13.6) | 146.2 (-2.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VCU -14.6 (+13.4) | 146.3 (-2.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VCU -13.7 (+14.3) | 145.4 (-1.4) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VCU | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-14 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 13-5 |
| Home | 13-6 | 7-3 |
| Away | 7-5 | 7-14 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 77.9 |
| Massey | 3.5 (#114) | -8.8 (#316) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.35 (#208) | -2.49 (#336) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.13 (#171) | -3.57 (#337) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#145) | 0.394 (#320) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VCU | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 45.4% |
| TOV% | 22.0% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 31.6% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.1% | 59.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 65.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.6% | 29.0% |
Game Analysis
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