Betting Lines
| Spread | FRES -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | FRES -900 PAC +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FRES +33 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | FRES -14.7 (+18.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.6 (+7.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FRES -11.1 (+21.9) | 140.9 (+4.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FRES -10.2 (+22.8) | 139.4 (+5.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FRES -11.5 (+21.5) | 139.1 (+5.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FRES -10.8 (+22.2) | 141.2 (+3.8) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 10, 2022 | PAC 76 – 72 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 6-26 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 0-16 |
| Home | 7-9 | 5-12 |
| Away | 3-9 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L23 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 64.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 81.4 |
| Massey | -5.1 (#273) | -14.6 (#353) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.99 (#266) | -1.53 (#298) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.39 (#271) | -2.40 (#308) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#210) | 0.410 (#300) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 29.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 6.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 22.9% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 19.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 29.1% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.