Betting Lines
| Spread | FRES -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | PAC +170 FRES -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PAC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PAC +4 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | PAC -2.3 (+1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.1 (+2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FRES -0.7 (+4.7) | 140.0 (+8.0) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PAC -2.0 (+2.0) | 142.1 (+5.9) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PAC -1.9 (+2.1) | 141.6 (+6.4) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PAC -1.9 (+2.1) | 139.4 (+8.6) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 10, 2023 | FRES 89 – 56 PAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PAC | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 6-12 |
| Home | 7-10 | 7-7 |
| Away | 7-7 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 63.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.4 | 66.0 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#212) | 0.9 (#161) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.69 (#307) | -0.61 (#235) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.75 (#286) | -0.08 (#186) |
| RPI | 0.380 (#336) | 0.467 (#227) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PAC | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 25.5% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 44.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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