Betting Lines
| Spread | ILST -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | ILST -300 NORF +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NORF +6 | 122 | Lost |
| Massey | ILST -6.9 (-12.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.7 (-5.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILST -4.0 (-10.0) | 131.8 (-9.8) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILST -5.5 (-11.5) | 133.5 (-11.5) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ILST -6.3 (-12.3) | 133.0 (-11.0) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILST -5.9 (-11.9) | 132.7 (-10.7) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILST | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 11-3 |
| Home | 10-6 | 15-0 |
| Away | 4-8 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.2 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 68.6 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#186) | -2.7 (#223) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.83 (#108) | -0.53 (#228) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.28 (#105) | -1.48 (#276) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#129) | 0.463 (#232) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILST | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 39.5% |
| 3PT% | 28.4% | 27.9% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 44.3% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 34.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 23.5% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 36.3% |
Game Analysis
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