Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | ETSU -400 TNTC +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +1 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | ETSU -11.9 (-10.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.4 (+9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -10.1 (-9.1) | 137.4 (+7.6) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -9.1 (-8.1) | 138.5 (+6.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ETSU -9.7 (-8.7) | 138.3 (+6.7) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETSU -9.4 (-8.4) | 136.9 (+8.1) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 20, 2022 | TNTC 69 – 62 ETSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETSU | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 5-13 |
| Home | 10-4 | 7-8 |
| Away | 5-11 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 64.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 73.7 |
| Massey | -2.2 (#218) | -8.9 (#318) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.40 (#150) | -1.16 (#278) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.40 (#160) | -1.72 (#284) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#158) | 0.419 (#291) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETSU | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.9% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 5.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 15.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.3% | 17.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 55.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 13.9% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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