Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | NEV -163 DRKE +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DRKE +19 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | NEV -5.2 (-24.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.6 (-27.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -2.8 (-21.8) | 144.2 (-19.2) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -3.4 (-22.4) | 145.8 (-20.8) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -2.2 (-21.2) | 146.4 (-21.4) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -3.5 (-22.5) | 146.0 (-21.0) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEV | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 28-7 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 16-4 |
| Home | 15-2 | 16-0 |
| Away | 8-3 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 79.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 10.9 (#39) | 5.6 (#86) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.01 (#17) | 1.72 (#55) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.80 (#12) | 1.83 (#77) |
| RPI | 0.599 (#47) | 0.597 (#50) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEV | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.90 | 1.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 11.6% | 13.3% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 39.6% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.0% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
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