Betting Lines
| Spread | UNLV -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | UNLV -154 LMU +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNLV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LMU +3 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | LMU -3.2 (+0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.4 (+8.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LMU -2.1 (-0.9) | 139.6 (+13.4) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LMU -2.4 (-0.6) | 140.4 (+12.6) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LMU -2.3 (-0.7) | 141.0 (+12.0) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LMU -2.0 (-1.0) | 139.9 (+13.1) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNLV | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 5-11 |
| Home | 12-5 | 8-8 |
| Away | 8-4 | 2-7 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 71.5 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#206) | 1.5 (#145) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.62 (#237) | -0.93 (#259) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.46 (#274) | -1.04 (#245) |
| RPI | 0.459 (#243) | 0.446 (#259) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNLV | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 29.8 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 28.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.4% | 45.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.7% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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