Betting Lines
| Spread | PFW -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | PFW -1600 SEMO +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PFW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PFW +9 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | PFW -28.6 (-19.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.1 (+21.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PFW -20.1 (-11.1) | 150.1 (+18.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PFW -22.1 (-13.1) | 144.9 (+24.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PFW -25.2 (-16.2) | 145.3 (+23.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PFW -24.9 (-15.9) | 149.3 (+19.7) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 8, 2022 | PFW 89 – 68 SEMO |
| Dec 11, 2021 | PFW 78 – 65 SEMO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PFW | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 4-14 |
| Home | 11-5 | 8-7 |
| Away | 10-8 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.3 | 64.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 76.2 |
| Massey | 7.5 (#61) | -15.9 (#358) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.48 (#28) | -2.16 (#326) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.19 (#33) | -3.29 (#328) |
| RPI | 0.574 (#73) | 0.408 (#305) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PFW | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 37.2% |
| 3PT% | 39.5% | 28.4% |
| REB / G | 30.1 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 42.7% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 21.9% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 16.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 54.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.6% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 30.0% |
Game Analysis
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