This will be our year, took a long time to come "This Will Be Our Year" - The Zombies
Memorial Coliseum (IN) · December 10, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread PFW -14.5 Away covered
O/U 152.5 Over
Money PFW -1600 / SEMO +1000
Model Predictions
Spread Total PFW win
Actual PFW +9 169 Won
Massey PFW -28.6 (-19.6) — —
Massey Totals — 147.1 (+21.9) —
Bradley-Terry — — 100% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 100% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ PFW -20.1 (-11.1) 150.1 (+18.9) 90% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML PFW -22.1 (-13.1) 144.9 (+24.1) 91% ✓
Baseline ML PFW -25.2 (-16.2) 145.3 (+23.7) 91% ✓
Baseline Plus ML PFW -24.9 (-15.9) 149.3 (+19.7) 91% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 8, 2022 PFW 89 – 68 SEMO
Dec 11, 2021 PFW 78 – 65 SEMO

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings PFW SEMO
Overall 23-13 9-22
Conference 11-9 4-14
Home 11-5 8-7
Away 10-8 1-14
Neutral 2-0 0-1
Last 5 4-1 1-4
Streak L1 W1
Avg Pts For 78.3 64.5
Avg Pts Against 72.9 76.2
Massey 7.5 (#61) -15.9 (#358)
Bradley-Terry 2.48 (#28) -2.16 (#326)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.19 (#33) -3.29 (#328)
RPI 0.574 (#73) 0.408 (#305)
Shooting & Four Factors PFW SEMO
FG% 46.5% 37.2%
3PT% 39.5% 28.4%
REB / G 30.1 32.4
OREB / G 7.6 9.9
AST / TO 1.20 0.78
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 54.6% 42.7%
TOV% 14.5% 19.8%
ORB% 21.9% 23.8%
FT Rate 22.6% 16.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.4% 54.6%
Opp TOV% 23.6% 16.7%
DRB% 69.0% 70.2%
Opp FT Rate 19.7% 30.0%

Game Analysis

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