Betting Lines
| Spread | PFW -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | SEMO +110 PFW -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SEMO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PFW +21 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | SEMO -11.9 (-32.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.9 (+23.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SEMO -6.1 (-27.1) | 143.5 (+13.5) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SEMO -8.1 (-29.1) | 138.1 (+18.9) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SEMO -9.4 (-30.4) | 138.4 (+18.6) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SEMO -8.4 (-29.4) | 140.6 (+16.4) | 78% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 10, 2023 | PFW 89 – 80 SEMO |
| Dec 11, 2021 | PFW 78 – 65 SEMO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SEMO | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-17 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 9-11 |
| Home | 9-4 | 9-6 |
| Away | 5-11 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.6 | 72.1 |
| Massey | 2.1 (#138) | -4.5 (#256) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.20 (#159) | -0.50 (#228) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#157) | -0.66 (#229) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#128) | 0.464 (#231) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SEMO | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 38.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 28.9% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 22.0% |
| ORB% | 23.3% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 17.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 78.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 13.6% |
Game Analysis
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