Betting Lines
| Spread | PFW -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PFW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PFW +13 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | PFW -3.2 (+9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.9 (-11.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PFW -2.3 (+10.7) | 150.0 (-7.0) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PFW -2.6 (+10.4) | 150.5 (-7.5) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PFW -2.6 (+10.4) | 150.5 (-7.5) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PFW -2.5 (+10.5) | 152.7 (-9.7) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 10, 2023 | PFW 89 – 80 SEMO |
| Dec 8, 2022 | PFW 89 – 68 SEMO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PFW | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 15-6 | 8-9 |
| Home | 14-2 | 8-5 |
| Away | 6-7 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 78.2 |
| Massey | -8.9 (#314) | -7.3 (#292) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.38 (#280) | -1.28 (#271) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.43 (#303) | -2.15 (#288) |
| RPI | 0.398 (#315) | 0.434 (#274) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PFW | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 30.1 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 22.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 27.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.6% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.2% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 34.6% |
Game Analysis
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