Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Under |
| Money | FOR +188 UNT -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FOR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FOR +1 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | UNT -6.7 (+7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.3 (-8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -4.9 (+5.9) | 128.9 (-9.9) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -3.2 (+4.2) | 131.1 (-12.1) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNT -3.6 (+4.6) | 132.5 (-13.5) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -4.3 (+5.3) | 132.7 (-13.7) | 36% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FOR | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 10-8 |
| Home | 6-11 | 11-4 |
| Away | 4-6 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-5 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 64.4 |
| Massey | -1.9 (#215) | 4.7 (#96) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.99 (#267) | -0.32 (#206) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.26 (#264) | 0.11 (#174) |
| RPI | 0.439 (#268) | 0.459 (#242) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FOR | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 36.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.1% | 22.7% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.7% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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