Betting Lines
| Spread | SDAK -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | SDAK -120 CSUB +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDAK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDAK +5 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | SDAK -10.8 (-5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.5 (+8.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDAK -7.1 (-2.1) | 138.8 (+12.2) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDAK -7.7 (-2.7) | 139.0 (+12.0) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDAK -7.9 (-2.9) | 138.3 (+12.7) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDAK -7.2 (-2.2) | 138.7 (+12.3) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2023 | CSUB 96 – 76 SDAK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDAK | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 8-12 |
| Home | 8-6 | 10-4 |
| Away | 2-12 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.3 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.5 | 70.4 |
| Massey | -2.3 (#219) | -7.8 (#304) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.73 (#244) | -0.83 (#252) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.10 (#249) | -1.46 (#275) |
| RPI | 0.421 (#289) | 0.444 (#264) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDAK | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 27.8% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 34.9% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 59.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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