Betting Lines
| Spread | CSUB -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | CSUB -213 SDAK +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUB +20 | 172 | Won |
| Massey | CSUB -2.9 (+17.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.9 (+24.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSUB -2.3 (+17.7) | 143.6 (+28.4) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSUB -2.3 (+17.7) | 142.2 (+29.8) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSUB -2.2 (+17.8) | 142.6 (+29.4) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSUB -2.0 (+18.0) | 143.4 (+28.6) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 10, 2023 | SDAK 78 – 73 CSUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUB | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 5-11 |
| Home | 10-4 | 8-6 |
| Away | 2-13 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.2 | 74.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 81.5 |
| Massey | -7.9 (#299) | -6.3 (#287) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.40 (#293) | -0.69 (#242) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.99 (#300) | -0.98 (#250) |
| RPI | 0.391 (#337) | 0.433 (#285) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUB | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 26.0% | 39.5% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 13.7% |
| DRB% | 63.9% | 66.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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