Betting Lines
| Spread | ISU -27.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ISU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ISU +51 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | ISU -22.3 (+28.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.4 (+19.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ISU -23.7 (+27.3) | 148.3 (+14.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ISU -18.5 (+32.5) | 145.2 (+17.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ISU -20.2 (+30.8) | 146.6 (+16.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ISU -22.2 (+28.8) | 151.3 (+11.7) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ISU | PV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 5-13 |
| Home | 18-0 | 5-6 |
| Away | 5-5 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.3 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.5 | 77.3 |
| Massey | 19.6 (#6) | 2.5 (#126) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.21 (#86) | 0.84 (#107) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.88 (#72) | 0.93 (#119) |
| RPI | 0.533 (#126) | 0.557 (#92) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ISU | PV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.4% | 38.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.75 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 42.2% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 36.0% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 28.5% | 28.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.1% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 75.7% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 34.5% |
Game Analysis
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