Betting Lines
| Spread | IONA -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | IONA -2500 SFPA +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IONA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IONA +7 | 115 | Won |
| Massey | IONA -17.4 (-10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.5 (-20.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IONA -16.4 (-9.4) | 133.7 (-18.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IONA -12.7 (-5.7) | 135.6 (-20.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IONA -13.9 (-6.9) | 136.1 (-21.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IONA -13.5 (-6.5) | 133.8 (-18.8) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IONA | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 8-22 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 3-13 |
| Home | 9-5 | 6-8 |
| Away | 5-8 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 63.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 73.7 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#176) | -12.6 (#343) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.92 (#258) | -1.45 (#292) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.80 (#227) | -3.29 (#327) |
| RPI | 0.433 (#274) | 0.418 (#292) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IONA | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 38.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 25.5% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 30.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 42.9% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 22.8% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 61.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.1% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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