Somehow I stayed thin, while the other guys got fat "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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61–21 on winners spread MAE 10.7 82 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Binghamton @ Fordham +13.5 144.5 88% 62–77 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Columbia +0.6 149.2 49% 76–73 ✗
Dartmouth @ Central Connecticut +1.6 135.4 55% 50–59 ✓
Queens University @ High Point +5.6 152.5 74% 87–79 ✗
Grambling @ Vanderbilt +3.9 135.1 68% 64–62 ✗
McNeese @ Northern Iowa +12.0 139.4 86% 52–49 ✗
Lipscomb @ Alabama A&M -5.9 149.0 27% 59–63 ✗
Washington @ Gonzaga +11.5 144.9 85% 60–77 ✓
Arkansas State @ Air Force +8.4 126.8 75% 55–80 ✓
Tulane @ Buffalo +0.5 153.5 52% 88–63 ✗
Penn State @ Illinois +11.9 147.9 87% 74–59 ✗
Vermont @ Colgate +6.4 145.4 74% 73–72 ✗
Drexel @ La Salle +3.8 137.1 63% 65–58 ✗
Long Island University @ UConn +25.4 144.8 91% 61–114 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Texas +22.5 143.3 91% 43–88 ✓
Oklahoma @ Arkansas +1.4 135.8 57% 78–88 ✓
Yale @ Kentucky +7.8 138.2 74% 59–69 ✓
Lafayette @ Quinnipiac +8.8 130.8 79% 63–76 ✓
Louisville @ Florida State +10.0 133.8 85% 53–75 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Saint Joseph's +4.0 139.7 65% 57–73 ✓
Temple @ Pennsylvania +2.0 146.2 57% 57–77 ✓
Radford @ VMI -6.0 147.6 28% 74–77 ✗
Georgetown @ Syracuse +7.0 145.3 74% 64–83 ✓
Canisius @ Toledo +12.2 155.6 87% 68–69 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ North Florida +5.6 146.5 71% 48–88 ✓
Evansville @ Ball State +11.5 138.8 86% 69–88 ✓
Holy Cross @ Northeastern +9.8 136.0 82% 58–59 ✓
NC State @ Miami +3.5 152.3 69% 73–80 ✓
UC Irvine @ South Dakota -7.1 137.6 26% 83–71 ✓
Drake @ Richmond +1.2 131.7 48% 52–82 ✓
Army @ Rhode Island +3.4 140.2 62% 67–77 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Charlotte +9.4 135.7 80% 80–82 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Dayton +4.4 142.1 67% 56–79 ✓
Wake Forest @ LSU -0.7 144.3 49% 70–72 ✗
Purdue @ Nebraska -4.4 138.7 34% 65–62 ✓
UIC @ Western Michigan -0.7 143.5 43% 62–56 ✓
UAlbany @ Providence +17.2 149.8 89% 55–93 ✓
Alabama @ Houston +11.6 135.3 80% 71–65 ✗
Denver @ UCLA +19.5 153.2 90% 64–87 ✓
Saint Mary's @ San Diego State -3.0 132.5 39% 68–61 ✓
East Texas A&M @ Abilene Christian +0.4 139.0 54% 64–83 ✓
Western Illinois @ Eastern Illinois -2.7 135.3 35% 79–75 ✓
Central Michigan @ Tulsa +3.6 143.8 63% 63–70 ✓
Wofford @ Georgia Southern -3.0 140.4 34% 57–79 ✗
Lamar @ Southern Miss +21.6 141.6 91% 59–95 ✓
Kent State @ Cleveland State -2.1 132.4 36% 67–58 ✓
South Carolina State @ South Carolina Upstate +5.8 149.9 73% 84–89 ✓
Xavier @ Cincinnati -0.2 157.9 45% 80–77 ✓
Valparaiso @ Ole Miss +13.6 133.5 87% 61–98 ✓
Georgia Tech @ North Carolina +9.4 150.1 83% 59–75 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Pittsburgh +15.6 145.3 88% 66–91 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Illinois State -1.3 138.1 38% 71–77 ✗
Jacksonville @ UNC Wilmington +4.5 124.2 65% 53–81 ✓
Longwood @ Wichita State +4.2 132.7 69% 63–81 ✓
Utah Valley @ Northern Arizona -1.2 145.1 43% 80–75 ✓
American University @ George Washington +2.6 141.8 55% 69–64 ✗
UTSA @ New Mexico +19.3 146.7 91% 76–94 ✓
Norfolk State @ William & Mary +4.7 140.4 68% 67–53 ✗
Murray State @ Bellarmine -2.1 135.4 39% 58–69 ✗
Winthrop @ Furman +10.2 155.8 83% 67–82 ✓
UL Monroe @ Northwestern State +15.0 143.0 88% 73–91 ✓
Seattle U @ North Dakota -4.5 142.0 28% 80–78 ✓
Washington State @ UNLV +0.3 137.4 57% 70–74 ✓
Brown @ Michigan State +10.9 133.0 82% 50–68 ✓
San José State @ Santa Clara +8.2 138.8 79% 75–64 ✗
St. Francis Brooklyn @ UMass Lowell +21.3 140.3 91% 59–68 ✓
Fresno State @ Pacific +2.0 142.1 56% 72–76 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Belmont +3.2 141.5 60% 85–75 ✗
Eastern Washington @ South Dakota State +6.5 140.0 76% 76–77 ✓
Butler @ California -9.1 129.4 18% 82–58 ✓
Boston College @ Villanova +2.6 135.5 62% 56–77 ✓
Auburn @ Memphis -2.2 130.5 40% 73–82 ✗
Kansas @ Missouri +2.9 159.4 62% 95–67 ✗
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Duke +22.5 134.1 91% 55–82 ✓
Morgan State @ UMBC +6.1 150.2 72% 63–75 ✓
North Texas @ Grand Canyon -2.6 121.1 36% 60–58 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Troy +13.5 147.2 86% 64–87 ✓
Omaha @ Montana State +8.8 144.0 80% 54–82 ✓
New Hampshire @ St. John's +16.7 147.0 89% 51–64 ✓
UAB @ West Virginia +9.9 156.4 81% 70–81 ✓
Long Beach State @ Sacramento State +3.1 146.0 66% 74–76 ✓
UTEP @ DePaul +4.5 148.3 67% 70–91 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.