Betting Lines
| Spread | GW -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | GW -225 AMER +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +5 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | GW -1.5 (-6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.2 (-10.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GW -2.8 (-7.8) | 136.6 (-3.6) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GW -2.6 (-7.6) | 141.8 (-8.8) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GW -2.1 (-7.1) | 143.8 (-10.8) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GW -1.8 (-6.8) | 136.9 (-3.9) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 13, 2025 | GW 107 – 67 AMER |
| Dec 5, 2024 | AMER 81 – 71 GW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GW | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-6 | 8-6 |
| Away | 5-6 | 9-9 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 65.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.3 | 65.9 |
| Massey | -1.4 (#202) | 2.3 (#129) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.54 (#230) | 1.04 (#99) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.92 (#241) | 0.99 (#123) |
| RPI | 0.452 (#250) | 0.516 (#146) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GW | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.7% | 48.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 38.3% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.4% | 55.8% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 17.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.0% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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