Betting Lines
| Spread | GW -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | GW -4000 AMER +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GW +40 | 174 | Won |
| Massey | GW -18.4 (+21.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.5 (+16.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GW -14.7 (+25.3) | 148.9 (+25.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GW -17.6 (+22.4) | 150.0 (+24.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GW -14.0 (+26.0) | 151.6 (+22.4) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 5, 2024 | AMER 81 – 71 GW |
| Dec 10, 2022 | AMER 69 – 64 GW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GW | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 9-9 |
| Home | 12-4 | 11-6 |
| Away | 4-8 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 72.7 |
| Massey | 4.9 (#91) | -2.7 (#229) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.29 (#62) | -0.35 (#205) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.69 (#70) | -0.52 (#213) |
| RPI | 0.688 (#53) | 0.365 (#289) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GW | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.0% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 25.0% | 28.3% |
| REB / G | 42.5 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 24.4% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 40.9% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 36.0% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.7% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.1% | 37.6% |
Game Analysis
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