Betting Lines
| Spread | GW -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | AMER +155 GW -185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +10 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | GW -2.9 (+12.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.6 (+10.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GW -2.7 (+12.7) | 141.8 (+10.2) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GW -1.5 (+11.5) | 143.5 (+8.5) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GW -2.7 (+12.7) | 144.3 (+7.7) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GW -3.3 (+13.3) | 142.7 (+9.3) | 36% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 13, 2025 | GW 107 – 67 AMER |
| Dec 10, 2022 | AMER 69 – 64 GW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMER | GW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 9-9 |
| Home | 14-2 | 13-4 |
| Away | 5-10 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 68.6 |
| Massey | -6.4 (#285) | 1.6 (#136) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.05 (#167) | 0.85 (#103) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.37 (#194) | 1.16 (#102) |
| RPI | 0.489 (#185) | 0.515 (#141) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMER | GW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 27.3 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 36.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.3% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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