Betting Lines
| Spread | TEX -36.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TEX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TEX +45 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | TEX -26.6 (+18.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.2 (-8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TEX -25.1 (+19.9) | 143.5 (-12.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TEX -22.5 (+22.5) | 143.3 (-12.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TEX -27.2 (+17.8) | 143.4 (-12.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TEX -26.7 (+18.3) | 145.0 (-14.0) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 15, 2024 | TEX 121 – 57 UAPB |
| Dec 15, 2021 | TEX 63 – 31 UAPB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TEX | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-9 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 6-12 |
| Home | 17-1 | 8-5 |
| Away | 4-6 | 2-16 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L9 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.0 | 65.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 16.0 (#10) | -5.4 (#268) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.21 (#37) | -1.84 (#313) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.42 (#23) | -2.73 (#320) |
| RPI | 0.615 (#37) | 0.458 (#241) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TEX | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 36.9% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 40.1 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 42.4% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 22.2% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 24.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 16.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.1% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.1% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 38.9% |
Game Analysis
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