Betting Lines
| Spread | TEX -38.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TEX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TEX +64 | 178 | Won |
| Massey | TEX -36.5 (+27.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.1 (+13.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TEX -36.8 (+27.2) | 156.6 (+21.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TEX -35.0 (+29.0) | 157.6 (+20.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TEX -24.8 (+39.2) | 162.4 (+15.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TEX -28.1 (+35.9) | 161.7 (+16.3) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 10, 2022 | TEX 88 – 43 UAPB |
| Dec 15, 2021 | TEX 63 – 31 UAPB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TEX | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 6-25 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 3-15 |
| Home | 11-7 | 4-8 |
| Away | 4-6 | 2-17 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.5 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 85.7 |
| Massey | 10.8 (#48) | -21.4 (#363) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.16 (#88) | -2.72 (#349) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.55 (#89) | -3.60 (#348) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#137) | 0.371 (#347) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TEX | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.2% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 29.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.4% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 22.5% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 17.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 59.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 57.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 26.5% |
Game Analysis
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