Betting Lines
| Spread | RAD -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | VMI +320 RAD -333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VMI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VMI +3 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | RAD -8.3 (+11.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.7 (+3.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RAD -4.1 (+7.1) | 146.0 (+5.0) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RAD -6.0 (+9.0) | 147.6 (+3.4) | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | RAD -5.5 (+8.5) | 149.5 (+1.5) | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RAD -5.7 (+8.7) | 147.3 (+3.7) | 29% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2025 | RAD 97 – 90 VMI |
| Dec 13, 2023 | RAD 73 – 56 VMI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VMI | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 21-15 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 12-6 |
| Home | 6-8 | 10-3 |
| Away | 1-14 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.7 | 68.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.4 | 66.2 |
| Massey | -10.5 (#332) | 2.9 (#116) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.99 (#320) | -0.04 (#183) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.31 (#309) | -0.33 (#207) |
| RPI | 0.340 (#357) | 0.517 (#144) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VMI | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 48.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 16.3% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.2% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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