Betting Lines
| Spread | VAN -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | VAN -1200 GRAM +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GRAM +2 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | VAN -6.4 (-8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.4 (-8.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAN -5.1 (-7.1) | 136.2 (-10.2) | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAN -7.6 (-9.6) | 136.0 (-10.0) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAN -3.9 (-5.9) | 135.1 (-9.1) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VAN -4.6 (-6.6) | 135.0 (-9.0) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAN | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-15 | 24-9 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 15-3 |
| Home | 14-6 | 11-1 |
| Away | 5-6 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 63.1 |
| Massey | 2.9 (#119) | 1.7 (#145) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.67 (#125) | 0.26 (#158) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.03 (#118) | 0.93 (#128) |
| RPI | 0.549 (#106) | 0.542 (#114) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAN | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 21.9% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 15.6% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 43.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 22.8% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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