Betting Lines
| Spread | UNI -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | UNI -1700 MCN +950 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MCN +3 | 101 | Lost |
| Massey | UNI -15.4 (-18.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.7 (-36.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNI -12.0 (-15.0) | 134.8 (-33.8) | 82% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNI -13.4 (-16.4) | 136.1 (-35.1) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNI -12.0 (-15.0) | 139.4 (-38.4) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNI -12.3 (-15.3) | 137.4 (-36.4) | 82% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNI | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 11-23 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 6-12 |
| Home | 8-8 | 6-8 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 76.1 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#230) | -13.2 (#350) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.50 (#300) | -3.79 (#357) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.92 (#295) | -5.94 (#361) |
| RPI | 0.411 (#308) | 0.348 (#353) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNI | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 39.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 23.9% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 17.3% | 16.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 57.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.8% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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