Betting Lines
| Spread | MISS -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | MISS -1600 VAL +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MISS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MISS +37 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | MISS -17.8 (+19.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.2 (+28.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MISS -15.0 (+22.0) | 133.8 (+25.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MISS -14.7 (+22.3) | 131.3 (+27.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MISS -13.6 (+23.4) | 133.5 (+25.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MISS -14.7 (+22.3) | 134.1 (+24.9) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MISS | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 5-15 |
| Home | 7-10 | 8-7 |
| Away | 2-9 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 68.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 74.0 |
| Massey | 6.4 (#72) | -6.2 (#284) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.64 (#63) | -0.78 (#255) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.59 (#49) | -1.58 (#280) |
| RPI | 0.616 (#35) | 0.399 (#317) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MISS | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 26.0% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 40.2% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 16.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.7% | 29.4% |
Game Analysis
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