Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 123.5 Over |
| Money | UNCW -125 JAX +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +28 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | UNCW -0.8 (+27.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 118.0 (+16.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -6.1 (+21.9) | 124.6 (+9.4) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -4.4 (+23.6) | 127.6 (+6.4) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -4.5 (+23.5) | 124.2 (+9.8) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -3.5 (+24.5) | 124.5 (+9.5) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 11, 2021 | JAX 77 – 48 UNCW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-10 | 13-16 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 6-12 |
| Home | 11-3 | 7-6 |
| Away | 8-6 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.0 | 61.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 64.7 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#130) | 6.7 (#69) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.10 (#41) | 1.85 (#50) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.72 (#47) | 2.49 (#54) |
| RPI | 0.626 (#24) | 0.643 (#15) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.6% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 29.2% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.7% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 23.9% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 30.7% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.2% | 16.1% |
Game Analysis
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