Betting Lines
| Spread | JAX -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JAX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JAX +29 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | JAX -12.1 (+16.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 110.5 (+14.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JAX -8.3 (+20.7) | 127.1 (-2.1) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JAX -9.1 (+19.9) | 124.4 (+0.6) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JAX -8.6 (+20.4) | 125.6 (-0.6) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JAX -9.0 (+20.0) | 125.1 (-0.1) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 10, 2022 | UNCW 81 – 53 JAX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JAX | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 0-0 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#178) | -7.5 (#293) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#212) | -1.39 (#281) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#217) | -1.76 (#269) |
| RPI | 0.483 (#208) | 0.380 (#331) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JAX | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.5% | 35.7% |
| 3PT% | 27.3% | 27.5% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.66 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.8% | 42.0% |
| TOV% | 26.4% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 15.9% | 18.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 83.0% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 29.2% |
Game Analysis
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