Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | MSU -1600 BRWN +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +18 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -13.4 (+4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.5 (-10.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -10.3 (+7.7) | 132.1 (-14.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -12.7 (+5.3) | 128.9 (-10.9) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -10.9 (+7.1) | 133.0 (-15.0) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -10.8 (+7.2) | 132.7 (-14.7) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | BRWN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 14-13 |
| Conference | 11-8 | 7-7 |
| Home | 12-2 | 7-5 |
| Away | 4-7 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 69.3 |
| Massey | 6.1 (#78) | -2.1 (#214) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.40 (#79) | -0.11 (#196) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.00 (#80) | -0.20 (#194) |
| RPI | 0.602 (#50) | 0.444 (#260) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | BRWN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 24.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 16.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 81.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 18.2% |
Game Analysis
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