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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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38–21 on winners spread MAE 9.4 59 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Boston University @ Marist	+3.2	129.7	59%	72–70	✗
Marshall @ Robert Morris	-5.2	138.5	27%	69–60	✓
Wright State @ Western Kentucky	+9.8	148.5	83%	60–64	✓
Southern Utah @ Cal State Fullerton	-1.3	147.0	45%	67–60	✓
Loyola Maryland @ Mount St. Mary's	+9.6	136.1	82%	34–51	✓
Nevada @ Oregon	+3.0	137.7	59%	65–78	✓
Mercer @ Florida Gulf Coast	+11.0	141.0	84%	62–67	✓
Monmouth @ Princeton	+21.5	142.5	91%	54–91	✓
Indiana @ Arizona	-3.8	156.5	40%	75–89	✗
UT Arlington @ Texas State	+1.9	128.9	58%	65–71	✓
Loyola Chicago @ Clemson	+7.4	139.5	78%	76–58	✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Missouri State	+5.0	132.0	67%	65–61	✗
Samford @ Louisiana	+3.7	156.9	66%	58–75	✓
Alcorn State @ Southern Illinois	+10.1	132.2	83%	68–74	✓
Kansas City @ Green Bay	-6.1	129.6	26%	64–70	✗
Montana @ North Dakota State	-0.3	136.5	47%	82–75	✓
St. Thomas @ Idaho State	+0.9	142.5	51%	76–70	✗
Gardner-Webb @ Old Dominion	+5.0	131.5	71%	43–44	✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Houston Christian	-2.9	158.0	35%	95–82	✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Pepperdine	+7.1	144.3	76%	67–64	✗
Boise State @ Saint Louis	+3.5	141.2	61%	57–52	✗
Central Arkansas @ Oral Roberts	+13.5	156.4	87%	78–111	✓
LSU New Orleans @ Portland	+17.3	154.4	90%	61–100	✓
Louisiana Tech @ Wyoming	-2.9	145.0	35%	65–92	✗
Creighton @ BYU	-10.2	146.5	19%	80–83	✗
TCU @ SMU	-9.1	134.1	19%	83–75	✓
Northern Colorado @ Cal State Northridge	+3.1	143.1	60%	70–63	✗
Portland State @ Cal Poly	+1.2	143.4	52%	49–72	✓
California Baptist @ San Diego	+2.0	142.7	59%	76–73	✗
Loyola Marymount @ Utah State	+5.7	156.3	72%	67–79	✓
St. Bonaventure @ Iona	+6.3	137.8	75%	57–72	✓
Tarleton State @ UCF	+8.6	134.5	77%	49–75	✓
Eastern Michigan @ Niagara	+10.3	144.4	82%	60–67	✓
Maine @ Merrimack	-7.7	132.1	20%	50–47	✓
Central Connecticut @ Fordham	+12.1	137.5	87%	77–90	✓
Bryant @ Manhattan	-4.6	150.2	28%	104–97	✓
Jackson State @ Akron	+10.9	140.9	86%	72–85	✓
Ohio @ Youngstown State	+11.8	150.8	84%	81–79	✗
Siena @ Delaware	+3.7	142.0	64%	64–75	✓
Coppin State @ East Carolina	+5.6	155.5	73%	75–84	✓
NJIT @ Fairleigh Dickinson	+5.5	144.8	71%	71–73	✓
East Tennessee State @ Morehead State	+2.8	133.7	56%	57–61	✓
Prairie View A&M @ Northwestern	+10.8	131.1	82%	51–61	✓
Oklahoma State @ Virginia Tech	-0.5	137.2	51%	65–70	✗
Chicago State @ UT Martin	+5.0	153.7	66%	74–75	✓
Incarnate Word @ Kansas State	+17.5	137.5	90%	50–98	✓
Lipscomb @ Tennessee State	+2.1	137.4	55%	85–90	✓
Indiana State @ Southern Indiana	-0.7	152.4	46%	85–88	✗
New Mexico State @ Duquesne	+4.5	149.1	70%	73–60	✗
Bowling Green @ Hampton	+1.3	145.2	51%	86–72	✗
Navy @ Towson	+5.3	141.1	74%	71–69	✗
Marquette @ Notre Dame	-1.6	147.3	41%	79–64	✓
Tennessee @ Maryland	-4.1	129.9	33%	56–53	✓
UC Riverside @ Idaho	+2.8	139.5	57%	76–74	✗
McNeese @ Iowa State	+21.0	129.6	90%	40–77	✓
Oregon State @ Texas A&M	+9.0	140.0	80%	54–72	✓
Presbyterian @ South Carolina	+3.5	131.6	61%	57–68	✓
Wisconsin @ Iowa	+6.3	139.6	75%	78–75	✗
Seton Hall @ Rutgers	+13.9	130.5	86%	45–43	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.