Betting Lines
| Spread | ORE -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | ORE -400 NEV +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ORE +13 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | ORE -3.9 (+9.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.3 (+9.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ORE -3.4 (+9.6) | 137.5 (+5.5) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ORE -4.3 (+8.7) | 137.7 (+5.3) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ORE -3.0 (+10.0) | 137.7 (+5.3) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ORE -2.7 (+10.3) | 138.9 (+4.1) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORE | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-15 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 12-6 |
| Home | 15-6 | 14-1 |
| Away | 4-6 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 8.1 (#60) | 9.5 (#47) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.16 (#161) | 2.39 (#31) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.59 (#137) | 2.89 (#42) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#142) | 0.652 (#10) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORE | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 28.2% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 35.3% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 36.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 43.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.9% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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