What have I done? "Police On My Back" - The Clash
Draddy Gymnasium · December 11, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread BRY -8.5 Home covered
O/U 150.5 Over
Money MAN +350 / BRY -400
Model Predictions
Spread Total MAN win
Actual BRY +7 201 Lost
Massey BRY -7.3 (+0.3) — —
Massey Totals — 152.6 (+48.4) —
Bradley-Terry — — 19% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 15% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ BRY -7.2 (+0.2) 148.5 (+52.5) 21% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML BRY -4.6 (-2.4) 150.2 (+50.8) 28% ✓
Baseline ML BRY -4.2 (-2.8) 150.0 (+51.0) 28% ✓
Baseline Plus ML BRY -5.2 (-1.8) 152.6 (+48.4) 24% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 7, 2023 MAN 61 – 59 BRY

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MAN BRY
Overall 12-18 17-13
Conference 10-10 8-8
Home 5-9 9-4
Away 6-7 7-8
Neutral 1-2 1-1
Last 5 2-3 3-2
Streak L2 L3
Avg Pts For 66.6 76.3
Avg Pts Against 71.5 75.4
Massey -11.4 (#339) 1.2 (#155)
Bradley-Terry -1.91 (#318) 0.63 (#120)
W. Bradley-Terry -2.97 (#329) -0.04 (#179)
RPI 0.364 (#347) 0.521 (#139)
Shooting & Four Factors MAN BRY
FG% 42.8% 42.5%
3PT% 31.1% 35.3%
REB / G 29.6 38.8
OREB / G 8.3 11.9
AST / TO 0.81 1.18
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 48.6% 49.9%
TOV% 22.0% 16.8%
ORB% 23.8% 29.1%
FT Rate 16.9% 22.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.7% 55.0%
Opp TOV% 23.0% 20.1%
DRB% 60.6% 74.9%
Opp FT Rate 23.2% 20.8%

Game Analysis

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