Betting Lines
| Spread | SUU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | CSUF +180 SUU -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SUU +7 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | SUU -4.2 (-2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.0 (-27.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SUU -1.6 (-5.4) | 148.0 (-21.0) | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SUU -1.9 (-5.1) | 145.0 (-18.0) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SUU -1.3 (-5.7) | 147.0 (-20.0) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SUU -1.5 (-5.5) | 146.8 (-19.8) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUF | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 12-6 |
| Home | 11-2 | 13-2 |
| Away | 7-8 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.3 | 79.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 77.1 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#211) | 2.1 (#133) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.01 (#178) | -0.58 (#235) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#205) | -0.60 (#222) |
| RPI | 0.499 (#176) | 0.500 (#173) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUF | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 28.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 54.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 75.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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