Betting Lines
| Spread | DUQ -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | DUQ -200 NMSU +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NMSU +13 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | DUQ -3.8 (-16.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.2 (-19.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUQ -4.3 (-17.3) | 150.4 (-17.4) | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUQ -2.0 (-15.0) | 146.5 (-13.5) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUQ -4.5 (-17.5) | 149.1 (-16.1) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DUQ -4.0 (-17.0) | 150.1 (-17.1) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUQ | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 9-15 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 2-16 |
| Home | 16-4 | 6-7 |
| Away | 3-7 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#127) | 3.8 (#107) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.03 (#103) | 0.26 (#154) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.39 (#106) | 0.68 (#131) |
| RPI | 0.544 (#109) | 0.527 (#127) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUQ | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 39.7% | 42.6% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 14.4 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 38.3% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 15.6% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 64.7% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 28.7% |
Game Analysis
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