Betting Lines
| Spread | TCU -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | SMU +600 TCU -700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TCU +8 | 158 | Lost |
| Massey | TCU -11.3 (+3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.3 (+31.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TCU -9.2 (+1.2) | 137.2 (+20.8) | 20% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TCU -8.7 (+0.7) | 136.8 (+21.2) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TCU -9.1 (+1.1) | 134.1 (+23.9) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TCU -8.5 (+0.5) | 135.0 (+23.0) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 9-9 |
| Home | 7-9 | 13-4 |
| Away | 1-11 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 75.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 68.4 |
| Massey | -5.8 (#278) | 5.5 (#84) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.76 (#309) | 1.56 (#73) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.70 (#285) | 3.74 (#17) |
| RPI | 0.417 (#298) | 0.501 (#171) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.3% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 27.5% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.8% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 36.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 43.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 24.2% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.6% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.